Tech That Should Excite (and Worry) You in 2016

 
For more than two decades, I have written an annual column with tech predictions for the next year. But this year I am deviating a bit from this tradition by highlighting promising technology as well as a few areas of concern. Let me start with the four tech products I believe will be interesting in 2016.

1. Uptick in Windows 10 Adoption
Although Windows 10 did not help the PC market in 2015, it should give it a boost next year, particularly in IT. Researchers and PC vendors I talk to say Windows 10 is the best OS Microsoft has introduced in 10 years, and they are seeing serious interest from IT departments that will be upgrading in larger numbers in 2016. If so, that would mean the PC market will only be off by -2 percent next year rather than -10 percent in 2015. PC vendors have concluded that PC demand will hover between 285-300 million global sales annually for the next three years. But others think that within 3-5 years, we may see only about 225-250 million sold each year, meaning we should prepare for a PC world where only HP, Dell, and Lenovo survive.

2. 2-in-1s and Convertibles Start to Catch On
By the end of this year, 2-in-1s and convertibles will account for less then 10 percent of all PCs sold in 2015. Despite heavy advertising from Microsoft and the PC vendors, products like Microsoft's Surface Pro and others in this category have been slow to take off. Even the iPad Pro £654.99 at Amazon has not helped this segment of the market grow. But that may change in 2016. Both 2-in-1s and convertibles are beginning to make more sense for a lot of laptop buyers since they do add a level of flexibility to the computing experience. Interestingly, if the industry pushed them as future proofing laptops, they would get a lot more attention as people now hold on to their laptops and PCs for years. But they would never do that because they really want people to buy new laptops every 3-4 years, with an eye on making 2-in-1s and convertibles account for as much as 40 percent of all laptops sold by 2018-2019.

3. Android 2-in-1s, Laptops Hit the Market
Although Google is still trying to push Chrome as its OS for laptops, the tide is turning and by the end of 2016 we should see many Android-based laptops and perhaps even Android desktops on the market. We know that at least one or two Android 2-in-1s will be launched at CES next week, but by this time next year, Android fans could have many more to choose from, sources tell me. These types of products would be especially attractive to a younger audience who cut their computing teeth on iOS and Android and have little interest in using Windows or even Mac at work.

4. VR and AR Domination? Not Exactly
I bought myself the $99 Samsung Gear VR for Christmas. It only works with a Samsung phone and needs special Oculus apps to really work. Although the experience is interesting, it is very clear to me that virtual and augmented reality are many years away from delivering a great consumer experience that will have major impact on the way people see and interact with technology. The Samsung Gear VR provides a glimpse of our future, and VR and AR will be a game changer for the overall PC, consumer electronics, and communications industries, just not in 2016. Next year is all about laying the building blocks for an eventual VR and AR experience that could be very cool for everyone.